Residential Solar in 2026: Still Worth the Investment?

$236 total (between delivery and supply) for 1,020 kWh – the same amount cost just $143 at 14¢/kWh in 2019. That’s nearly an 80% increase.

Energy bills have long been one of the most predictable expenses in a household budget, yet in the Hudson Valley they have become anything but steady. Families are opening their monthly statements and finding charges that keep climbing, often increasing faster than the cost of living itself.

Against this backdrop of rising and unpredictable bills, homeowners are also watching the federal tax credit for solar near its end in 2025. With limited time left to capture it, the natural question becomes: will solar still make sense once the credit is gone?

One of the clearest places to start answering that is by looking at utility costs. In 2019, Central Hudson’s combined supply and delivery rate was about 14 cents per kilowatt hour. Today, it has surged past 25 cents, a jump of roughly 80 percent in just six years, averaging about a 10% increase every year. That kind of growth is not a gradual climb; it is a steep and costly hike that is hitting household budgets hard.

Adding to the pressure, the New York Public Service Commission approved a new three-year rate increase on August 8, 2025, that will push the average customer’s bill up by about $50 per month.

As Chronogram reports, the increase comes even as the utility’s profits have doubled over the last decade –underscoring why homeowners are looking for more stable, long-term energy solutions like solar.

Residential Solar Incentives in New York: NYSERDA’s 2025 Update

With utility rates still climbing and the federal tax credit set to expire at the end of 2025, Central Hudson customers face another shift. As of August 2025, the NYSERDA residential solar incentive block has officially closed. This program, which has provided upfront state rebates for homeowners since the early 2000s, is no longer available in Central Hudson territory. Incentives remain in place for other New York utilities such as NYSEG, RG&E, and National Grid, but unless new funding is allocated, Central Hudson households will move forward without this support.

That means Central Hudson households are now looking at solar pricing without the additional state rebate, but here's an encouraging fact... the numbers still work!

Solar vs Central Hudson Costs: The 25-Year Comparison

A typical Central Hudson household uses about 12,000 kilowatt hours each year.

At today’s average rate of 25.3¢/kWh, here’s what that adds up to over the next 25 years:

• 3% annual increase: about $111,000 spent on grid power

• 5% annual increase: about $145,000

• 10.1% annual increase (historic pace): about $303,000

Compared to a 10 kW solar system in Central Hudson territory, producing 12,000 kilowatt hours per year at a cost of $2.90 per watt:

• With all incentives (30% federal credit + $5,000 NY State credit + NYSERDA rebate): ~$16,250 over 25 years ~5.4¢ for every kilowatt hour produced

• With NYSERDA now closed in Central Hudson territory (federal + state credits only): ~$17,750 total, or ~5.9¢/kWh

• Starting in 2026, when the federal credit ends (state credit only): ~$27,500 total, or ~9.2¢/kWh

Set against Central Hudson’s rising costs – projected between $111,000 and $303,000 over the next 25 years depending on rate increases – the math is clear. Even after incentives phase down, solar remains a fraction of the long-term cost of grid power.

Solar is Still a Smart Investment Even Without Incentives

The 30% Federal Tax Credit has been a major driver for solar adoption and NYSERDA’s rebate program has been another strong incentive. With both now phasing down or closing out in our region, the question is whether solar still makes sense. 

The answer is yes – rising utility rates, improving technology, and more competitive installation markets will keep solar’s long term value strong. Even without incentives, a well sized system can still pay for itself long before the end of its lifespan, and as rates rise, that payback period shortens. 

Boosting Home Value with Solar

A 2025 study by SolarReviews found that homes with solar panels sold for an average of 6.9% more than comparable homes without solar. With the median U.S. home value at about $417,000, that translates to nearly $29,000 in added value. While results can vary based on location, system size, condition, and financing, multiple studies have confirmed the same trend: solar consistently boosts home equity.

The Best Hedge Against Utility Rate Increases and Outages

Gas rates in the Hudson Valley are climbing alongside electricity costs, making electrification through heat pumps and induction cooking one of the most effective ways to protect against both electric and fossil fuel price swings when paired with solar. To maximize those benefits, homeowners should also focus on weatherizing their homes, sealing and insulating so less energy is wasted, and using high efficiency appliances. Taken together, these steps reduce overall demand and make every kilowatt of solar power go further.

Another advantage for New York homeowners is that the state still offers full net metering. Unlike in many other states, every kilowatt hour your system produces directly offsets the kilowatt hour you would otherwise buy from the utility. With enough roof or land space, solar can cover nearly all of a household’s annual electricity needs, leaving only the Basic Service Charge and the Customer Benefit Contribution (often called the solar tax) on the bill. Net metering may not remain this favorable forever, so today’s rules represent an important benefit for those who act while they last.

Adding a battery goes a step further, providing backup power when the grid fails and, for customers with demand meters, the ability to manage costs by storing energy during off-peak hours and using it when rates are higher. When used this way, batteries can generate an additional return on investment. Together, solar and storage deliver not just savings, but resilience and independence.

The Takeaway

Central Hudson is not alone in raising rates – utilities across New York and the Northeast have pushed through rate increases in recent years, citing infrastructure upgrades, rising fuel costs, and grid modernization. The pattern is clear, and there is little reason to expect it will reverse.

For homeowners, the takeaway is this: even without the federal tax credit or NYSERDA incentive, generating your own power and pairing it with storage will continue to outperform utility rates that rise year after year.

Industry Innovations: Making Solar More Affordable

Even as incentives step back, industry leaders are focused on cutting costs and streamlining processes, pushing solar toward wider adoption and lasting affordability.

Ravi Mikkelsen of Atmos Financial points out – hitting the $2/Watt milestone is realistic if the industry continues to scale, streamline permitting, and cut soft costs like financing overhead and project delays. Each of these improvements directly lowers the price that homeowners pay, which means solar will remain a smart long-term investment even as state and federal incentives phase out.

Alongside these cost reductions, more flexible financing options are emerging, from solar-specific loans to property-assessed clean energy programs and even utility-backed incentives. These tools are built to help homeowners spread costs out over time while still seeing savings from day one. When combined with falling installation costs, creative financing will keep solar competitive well beyond the current incentive phase-down.

The Value of a Dedicated Solar Development Partner

As electric loads grow from heat pumps, EVs, and other upgrades, homeowners need a system that is thoughtfully designed, well managed, and built to last – which is where New Energy Project Management (NEPM) comes in. While many turnkey installers carry construction overhead that adds to the price, we take a different approach, keeping projects lean by focusing on the essentials – the right equipment, the right partners, and careful management from start to finish.

The result is simple: lower costs and a smoother path to energy independence.

Optimism for the Road Ahead

If you can go solar this year, we will do everything possible to make that happen. If you cannot, the math still works in your favor. Rates are rising, technology is advancing, and the industry is committed to making energy independence more affordable.

If you would like to start or resume your journey to energy independence, NEPM is here to help. Reach out today to speak with our team and take the next step toward owning your power.